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4 Publications found…

  • Working Paper 17 January 2024

    The welfare effects of leaving the EU: a first ex-post assessment

    By Nicolò Tamberi.

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    Summary CITP publication

    This paper presents the first ex-post evaluation of the welfare effects of leaving the EU for the year 2021. The calculation accounts for changes in trade costs between the UK and the EU and changes in the UK Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff schedule.

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  • Blog post 21 November 2023

    Understanding data: making the right comparison is hard to do

    By Nicolò Tamberi.

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    Summary CITP publication

    This blog discusses how analysis of data can sometimes be misleading, if not carried out in a robust and considered manner.

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  • Working Paper 31 October 2023

    Preferential trade agreements under uncertainty

    By Nicolò Tamberi et al.

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    Summary CITP publication

    The author develops a model of trade in a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with uncertainty about tariff preferences. With uncertainty, more firms trade under the Most Favoured Nation regime and total trade is reduced. The model is applied to Brexit and UK imports from PTA partners.

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  • Academic Paper 26 October 2023

    Export-platform foreign direct investment and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from brexit

    By Nicolò Tamberi et al.

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    Summary CITP publication

    This paper analyses the effect of trade policy uncertainty in a customs union on export-platform foreign direct investment (FDI). First, I develop a partial equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms based on the proximity–concentration trade-off that involves trade policy uncertainty about trade costs inside a customs union. Second, I derive an empirical equation that I test by exploiting the 2016 Brexit referendum as a natural experiment and using data on manufacturing greenfield FDI projects. The results show that trade policy uncertainty impacted negatively the decisions of firms to invest in export-platform activities in the UK following the Brexit referendum. Moreover, I find that extra-EU manufacturing firms preferred EU countries as opposed to the UK for new investments after the 2016 referendum.

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