Publications

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8 Publications found…

  • Academic Paper 16 January 2024

    How should governments respond to energy price crises? A horse-race between fiscal policies

    By Geoffroy Duparc-Portier and Gioele Figus et al.

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    Summary CITP publication

    This paper analyses the impact of policies aimed to reduce energy prices following an energy import price shock. The authors use a simulation general equilibrium model. Scenarios include the implication of taxing profits from energy companies.

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  • Blog post 13 December 2023

    Brexit and Scottish exports? A negative shock?

    By Geoffroy Duparc-Portier, Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor and Graeme Roy.

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    Summary CITP publication

    New data provides the first insight into Scotland’s trade flows post-Brexit showing relatively weak international export performance across the Scottish economy.

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  • Blog post 20 April 2023

    What are the economic implications of the Windsor Framework?

    By Geoffroy Duparc-Portier, Gioele Figus and Graeme Roy.

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    Summary CITP publication

    Analysis of the impact of the Windsor Framework on trade in Northern Ireland

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  • Academic Paper 27 February 2023

    Trade-Offs: Understanding Future Trade Options for Scotland

    By Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor, Stuart McIntyre and Graeme Roy et al.

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    Summary CITP publication

    Trade issues lie at the heart of the two biggest constitutional challenges the UK has faced in decades: Brexit and Scottish independence. Brexit has demonstrated the economic importance of borders and led to renewed calls for Scottish independence. While there are a range of possible trading arrangements an independent Scotland could pursue, all of them involve economically significant change. In this paper, we describe Scottish trade patterns and review the range of options that a newly independent Scotland might have for its trading arrangements. We then model the relative economic importance of these different potential trading arrangements.

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  • Blog post 15 December 2022

    What Scotland trades and why it matters for independence

    By Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor, Stuart McIntyre and Graeme Roy.

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    Summary CITP publication

    A key argument in favour of Scottish independence is the possibility of re-joining the EU single market, Scotland’s largest export market for goods. But this comes with the trade-off of increased barriers with the UK, Scotland's largest export market for services and overall. But Scotland trades different things with the EU and the UK, so switching markets is far from simple.

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  • Academic Paper 20 July 2022

    The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?

    By Gioele Figus et al.

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    Summary Pre-CITP publication

    The Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). But it creates different trade rules in NI and GB generating trade frictions between two regions of the same country. This paper uses a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced if NI firms can substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.

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  • Academic Paper 20 July 2022

    Trade-offs: understanding future trade options for Scotland

    By Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor and Graeme Roy et al.

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    Summary Pre-CITP publication

    Trade issues lie at the heart of the two biggest constitutional challenges the UK has faced in decades: Brexit and Scottish independence. Brexit has demonstrated the economic importance of borders and led to renewed calls for Scottish independence. In this paper, the authors describe Scottish trade patterns and review the range of options that a newly independent Scotland might have for its trading arrangements then model the relative economic importance of these different potential trading arrangements.

    Topics

  • Blog post 17 May 2022

    The trade inclusivity of new borders and old borders: the case of Scotland

    By Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor, Graeme Roy and Stuart McIntyre.

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    Summary CITP publication

    Trade has played a major role in shaping the history of the UK. The decision of the UK to leave the EU in 2016, which followed the strong vote in favour of remain in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, has re-ignited the debate around independence. In this blog, researchers look at possible options for trade for Scotland and potential trade-offs between new borders and old borders.

    Topics