The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?
Duparc-Portier, G., & Figus, G. (2021) ‘The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?’ Regional Studies, 1-14.
Published 20 July 2022
The Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). But it creates different trade rules in NI and GB generating trade frictions between two regions of the same country. This paper uses a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced if NI firms can substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.