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5 Publications found…

  • Blog post 14 November 2023

    Brexit inflation? Trade policy uncertainty raised import prices since 2015

    By Alejandro G. Graziano.

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    Summary CITP publication

    A new study on the impact of Brexit shows that import prices increased due to uncertainty about future trade conditions with the EU even before Brexit had happened.

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  • Academic Paper 26 August 2023

    An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty

    By Alejandro G. Graziano et al.

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    Summary CITP publication

    We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and by reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by more than 10%. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.

    Topics

    None.

  • Working Paper 30 June 2023

    Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain

    By Alejandro G. Graziano and Yuan Tian.

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    Summary CITP publication

    This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on local production, transportation, and consumption of goods in the affected regions on international trade flows during the COVID-19 pandemic and its direct implications.

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  • Academic Paper 20 July 2022

    The Effects of Transit Systems on International Trade

    By Alejandro G. Graziano et al.

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    Summary Pre-CITP publication

    In this paper, the authors estimate the trade effects of a transit system upgrading that streamlines border processing in developing countries. The empirical approach combines transaction level export data from El Salvador with unique data that distinguishes export flows that were processed on the transit system. The results indicate that the new transit system lowered regulatory border costs and raised exports. This evidence informs a policy covered by the 2013 WTO Agreement of Trade Facilitation.

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  • Academic Paper 20 July 2022

    Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

    By Alejandro G. Graziano et al.

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    Summary Pre-CITP publication

    This paper provides an estimate of the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. The authors estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.

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