Regional deprivation, individual prospects and political resentment

Regional economic conditions affect livelihoods and the geography of political resentment. Yet, individuals do not equally partake in their region’s economic fortunes, and their perceptions of relative deprivation need not be the same. Grievances are likely to be shaped not only by income disparities but also by how personal prospects are tied to regional conditions. We argue that the interaction between subjective individual and regional relative deprivation crucially affects perceptions of shared experience and systemic unfairness. Through a large-scale survey experiment in Britain, we provide causal evidence that poor individuals in poor regions express more political resentment due to diminished personal financial prospects and social status. In contrast, political attitudes among poor and wealthy individuals are indistinguishable in affluent regions. Our findings reveal how reference groups affect subjective perceptions of relative deprivation and highlight the importance of egocentric mechanisms, whereby the local economy shapes expectations of individual prospects.

Non-Technical Summary

Whether regional economic decline stems from import competition, automation, or the global financial crisis, there is substantial evidence that deteriorating local economies drive populist success. While cultural concerns also play a role in political discontent, a central explanation for its geographic clustering is that economic shocks undermine the livelihoods of those residing in affected areas. Importantly, the local economic context also shapes individual prospects: those in deprived areas face poorer employment trajectories and generally worse economic opportunities. In addition, individual economic outcomes are increasingly tied to regional fortunes, especially for those at the bottom of the income distribution. As a result, the interaction between individual and regional deprivation could act as a powerful driver of political resentment.

Do individual income positions shape political attitudes differently based on local economic conditions? Specifically, do lower-income individuals exhibit varying degrees of political resentment depending on whether they reside in wealthy or deprived regions, and why? These are important questions, but shedding light on how the relative income position of individuals and regions interact to shape political behaviour is challenging.

To address this, we employ a large survey experiment in Great Britain, where populism and spatial inequality have shaped the recent political discourse. We exogenously vary the salience of individual and regional deprivation, analysing both subjective and objective positions in the income hierarchy, as well as their interaction.

We confirm that subjective perceptions of both individual and regional deprivation increase political resentment. We also find that contextual deprivation significantly moderates the relationship between individual deprivation and political attitudes. Poorer individuals residing in disadvantaged regions articulate stronger anti-democratic sentiments, lower satisfaction with democracy, and reduced trust in government. By contrast, in affluent areas, poor individuals’ political attitudes resemble those of wealthier residents, suggesting that regional prosperity mitigates resentment. In other words, individual relative deprivation does not necessarily foster resentment. Rather, it is when poor people live in poor regions that deprivation becomes politically charged and anti-systemic attitudes emerge.

The causal effects we uncover are substantial. For example, while only 30% of poor individuals in the most deprived regions express support for democracy, this figure rises to 70% in prosperous ones. Investigating mechanisms using mediation models, we show that prospective economic perceptions of personal finances and social status are key drivers. Poor individuals in less affluent regions are more likely to expect their personal economic situation to deteriorate in the coming year, a pessimism that subsequently fuels democratic dissatisfaction, distrust in government and populist attitudes. Additionally, the same individuals perceive themselves to be in a lower position in the social hierarchy, which further influences democratic dissatisfaction and distrust. In contrast, indirect effects are largely insignificant for poor individuals residing in wealthier regions, who appear to benefit from positive economic signals, higher social status, and the spill-over effects of thriving local economies.

This study makes three key contributions. First, we provide a new perspective on the reference categories and mechanisms that trigger feelings of relative deprivation: while inter-personal and inter-regional income comparisons both matter, individuals at the bottom of the income distribution articulate very different levels of political resentment depending on the prosperity of their region. This allows us to reconcile the apparent contradiction between two literatures – one focusing on regional economic drivers of political discontent, the other stressing that at the individual level cultural factors are instead better predictors of political behaviour. Although cultural factors are clearly important, we show that the effect of material drivers cannot be fully disentangled without considering the interaction between individual and regional economic circumstances. The latter are in fact crucial to explain why individual deprivation does not always lead to higher political resentment.

Second, we highlight the importance of self-interest in shaping responses to geographic contexts. We show that individuals use regional economic conditions as heuristics for their personal prospects. Poor individuals in affluent regions perceive better future opportunities, reducing political resentment. Conversely, alignment between individual and regional deprivation exacerbates economic pessimism and dissatisfaction.

Finally, we provide causal experimental evidence in a field dominated by observational studies. Our design allows us to isolate the effects of regional deprivation from individual circumstances, offering insights into how subjective perceptions mediate these effects. We find that subjective economic perceptions outweigh objective conditions in driving political resentment. These perceptions, shaped by local contexts, strongly influence democratic dissatisfaction and distrust in government. Importantly, since subjective economic perceptions are known to correlate with partisanship, prior ideological leanings and personal circumstances, our experimental approach allows us to obtain causal estimates net of other potentially confounding factors.

Policy implications are clear: reducing political resentment requires addressing both individual and regional deprivation. Investments in economically disadvantaged regions can alleviate anti-systemic attitudes, but their success hinges on altering subjective beliefs among residents attuned to local conditions. This underscores the importance of place-based policies in mitigating political discontent.

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