Academic Conference 2026 - Programme

“Preferential” Trade Agreements?
Sebastian Ahlstich (Copenhagen Business School), Jan Stuckatz (Copenhagen Business School)

We document that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) often fail to generate tariff advantages in practice. PTAs offer member countries lower tariffs than most-favored-nation (MFN) rates. However, many agreements reduce tariffs gradually from the MFN level at negotiation, while governments may later cut MFN tariffs unilaterally. When these reductions undercut preferential rates, the negotiated advantage disappears until implementation catches up. Using Colombian import data during implementation of PTAs with the U.S. and EU, we show that early on, negotiated preferences for 35% of imports from the U.S. and 45% from the EU were effectively absent.

Who bears the burden? The effects of sanctions on inequality
Anna Köhler (Universität der Bundeswehr München)

This paper examines how international sanctions affect income inequality in low- and middle-income countries using global data from 1973–2017. Focusing on US, UN, and EU sanctions, it finds that inequality growth generally declines in the first years after implementation, suggesting higher-income groups bear a larger share of the costs. However, effects vary: reductions are strongest in middle-income countries and for economic sanctions, while sanctions show no significant impact on inequality growth in low-income countries. These patterns are not explained by changes in trade, investment, or aid, pointing to other mechanisms shaping how sanctions redistribute economic burdens.

Sectoral vs. Firm-Level Sanctions in Trade Policy
Clément Montes (CREST, Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

This paper compares the consequences of imposing fully prohibitive sanctions targeting firms rather than entire sectors. I document that sanctions against firms have become more prevalent than sectoral ones. I further show that this shift is solely driven by the type of sanction used conditional on political objective and scale. I then build a quantitative two-country model of heterogeneous firms to distinguish the impacts of a sanction on the welfare of both economies. Results indicate that the economic burden of a sectoral import sanction is supported by the domestic economy. The burden shifts to the foreign economy for firm-specific sanctions.

Trade and Firm-Level Adjustments to Geopolitical Shifts: Evidence from Armenia
Mushegh Tovmasyan (University Paris-Saclay)

When major powers impose sanctions, neutral countries often find themselves caught in the middle of the resulting economic realignments. This paper examines how Armenia’s economy responded to the Western sanctions on Russia introduced in 2022. Using detailed microdata, I show that Armenia’s trade expanded rapidly as existing firms increased their role in redirecting goods between Russia and the rest of the world, including products subject to trade restrictions. These adjustments raised firm revenues and slightly increased worker wages, but generated limited new employment. The results highlight how geopolitical shocks can reshape trade patterns and concentrate gains among incumbent firms in intermediary economies.

Managerial Strategies and Resilience to Supply Chain Shocks
Thomas Michael Rowley (Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University), Giorgio Presidente (Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University), Carlo Altomonte (Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University), Christoph Weiss (European Investment Bank)

This paper examines how European firms responded to supply chain disruptions during and after COVID-19. Using a large firm-level survey merged financial data, it shows that firms that took proactive steps, especially building inventory buffers and improving digital supply chain tracking, were more resilient to shocks. It also finds that resilience depends not only on operations but also on access to finance, since some protective strategies are costly upfront yet help firms cope when disruptions hit. Overall, the paper argues that resilience comes from adapting supply networks and strengthening managerial capabilities rather than pulling back from trade.

Steel and Aluminium Tariffs: Impact Assessment for the US, UK, and Broader Markets
Jun Du (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School), Oleksandr Shepotylo (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School), Yujie Shi (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School), Lisha He (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School)

This paper examines the effects of the 2025 US steel and aluminium tariffs on trade, prices, and welfare, with particular attention to the implications for the UK. Combining monthly product-level trade data with an economic simulation model, it finds that US imports of covered products fell by about 20% for steel and 10% for aluminium. Around 70–80% of the tariff increase was passed through to US buyers, while foreign exporters absorbed 20–30% through lower prices. The model further suggests that temporary UK preferential access to the US market is worth around £600 million per year, but remains fragile.

Globalization, Inequality and Growth
Giammario Impullitti (CITP and CEPR, University of Nottingham), Mirsad Sipahioglu (University of Nottingham), Zhihong Yu (CITP, University of Nottingham), Adam Hal Spencer (University of Bonn)

How does trade liberalization shape long-run growth and inequality—not only in wages and income, but also in wealth? We study this question through the lens ofChina’s WTO accession, a large and salient globalization episode. We show that this policy led to three empirical patterns: (i) a sharp increase in trade openness, (ii) rising inequality, both in terms of the skilled wage premium and in terms of wealth dispersion,and (iii) an acceleration of innovation and productivity growth. The central contribution of the project is to provide a unified theoretical framework that jointly speak to these patterns, highlighting a rich set of channels through which trade liberalization can affect productivity growth, wage and wealth inequality.

Industrial Policy Wars and Inequality: Who Loses and When?
Ziran Ding (University of St Andrews), Adam Hal Spencer (University of Bonn), Zinan Wang (Tianjin University)

How do industrial policy wars affect worker inequality over time? We develop an open-economy model to study how industrial policy impacts the joint distribution of firms and workers. The model features multiple sectors with varying skill intensities and two worker skill classes. Heterogeneous firms make dynamic decisions regarding input offshoring and exporting. Different policy shocks generate alternative transmission channels that interact with firm and household decisions, yielding different distributional implications. We find that while industrial policies typically benefit the protected skill class, these gains take time to materialize. Similarly, costs borne by non-protected workers diminish over time.

The Impact of Digital Technology Adaptation on UK firms and their employment
Maria Savona (CITP, University of Sussex), Dongzhe Zhang (CITP, University of Sussex), Ingo Borchert (CITP, University of Sussex)

This study examines how the adoption of digital technologies affects employment in UK firms. We identify technology adopters as firms that import automation- or AI-related capital goods — such as industrial robots, computer-controlled machinery, and data processing equipment — using UK customs records between 2015 and 2021. Adopting firms are rare but economically significant: they represent less than 1% of all firms yet account for nearly a quarter of total employment. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we estimate how employment changes in the years following adoption, comparing adopters with similar non-adopting importers. The findings will inform policy debates on technology, productivity, and jobs in the UK.

WTO Security Exception and Existential Threat
Frances Chisomaga Nwadike (University of Southampton)

This paper examines the growing jurisprudence on security concerns as an exception to obligations in international trade agreements. It argues that this can best be understood by reference to the concept of ‘existential threat’. At the WTO, the Security Exception clause is provided in three multilateral trade agreements, GATT, GATS, and TRIPS. The WTO Panel ruled that the clause is not self-judging and can only be used to justify restrictive measures imposed during war or an emergency in international relations but remains uncertain. This paper proposes that a focus on ‘existential threat’ can more clearly highlight the need for protective measures.

TRIPS, Strict IPR Regimes, and Development: An Empirical Study of Developing Nations
Anson Jose (Boyd Tandon MCC Business School, Madras Christian College)

This paper examines a dominant question in international economic law: do stringent intellectual property administrations under the World Trade Organization framework sincerely promote development in the Global South, or do they develop structural asymmetries? Focusing on the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), the study moves beyond doctrinal debate and undertakes an empirical comparison between developing countries that have adopted TRIPS-plus, high-enforcement IP frameworks and those that have implemented more flexible, development-oriented approaches.

Straining the Triangle: Multilateralized Regionalism and the Compliance Trilemma in International Trade
Priyadarshini Venkatesh (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID)

The paper examines how multilateralized regionalism responds to governance gaps created by trade-plus issues, analysed through the compliance trilemma framework, wherein international agreements cannot simultaneously achieve widespread participation, ambitious legal norms, and high compliance. By including variable geometry, plurilateral agreements, differentiated commitments, and informal compliance mechanisms, it manoeuvres the trilemma's inherent trade-offs when addressing ambitious trade-plus provisions. Analysing contemporary agreements reveals how flexible institutional arrangements attempt to balance ambition and participation while maintaining compliance effectiveness. The findings reveal how multilateralized regionalism pragmatically navigates the trilemma, offering pathways for ambitious norm-setting while accommodating diverse State preferences in an increasingly fragmented yet interconnected trade landscape.

International Regulatory Cooperation and Services Trade: Argentina and Uruguay Adequacy Decisions on Data Protection
Martina F. Ferracane (Teesside University / European University Institute), Bernard Hoekman (CITP, European University Institute), Ben Shepherd (Developing Trade Consultants), Anirudh Shingal (S.P. Jain Institute of Management Research)

This paper examines the experience in Argentina and Uruguay with EU data adequacy decisions. The analysis shows that both countries recognised the trade-facilitating potential of adequacy decisions, in addition to the benefits of data protection from a rights perspective. There have been significant regulatory spillovers, as well as institutional adaptations at the regional level through the development of EU- and non-EU-based adequacy clubs. Using a quantitative analysis with a structural gravity model that incorporates the latest developments in the causal analysis literature, the paper shows that the effect of data adequacy on bilateral trade is substantial for both Argentina (a 28% increase over time) and Uruguay (an 11% increase).

Trade in Services under Regulatory Barriers: Evidence from UK Banking
Shania Bhalotia (The London School of Economics and Political Science), Sophie Piton (Bank of England and Centre for Macroeconomics), John Woods (Bank of England)

This paper examines how regulatory changes affect cross-border banking. Using confidential data from the Bank of England, we show that Brexit significantly reduced UK banks’ lending to and deposit-taking from European Economic Area (EEA) countries. Banks that lost automatic access to EU markets cut their cross-border activity much more than others, especially those heavily exposed before the referendum. We find little evidence that banks offset these barriers by shifting activity to foreign affiliates. Overall, the results highlight how regulatory access plays a key role in shaping cross-border financial services.

Heterogeneity in Trade in Service Barriers: Firm-Level Evidence of the Impact of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on Trade in Services
Cindy Justo (University of Sheffield), Antonio Navas (University of Sheffield), Enrico Vanino (University of Sheffield)

This paper examines how new barriers to trading services affected UK firms after Brexit and the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Using detailed firm-level export data, it finds that UK services exports to the EU fell after the referendum and declined further once new regulations took effect. The impact differed across firms, with medium-sized and foreign-owned firms most affected. Restrictions on the movement of people and reduced competition were the main causes of the decline. The results show that regulatory changes can strongly influence trade in services and that the overall costs of Brexit may be larger than previously estimated.

Export credit insurance and Firm export performance: Evidence from China’s export promotion program
Yanqing Zhong (University of Sheffield)

Exporting involves substantial risks, including trade costs, payment defaults, and political instability. Export credit insurance (ECI) can reduce these risks but is often costly, especially for credit-constrained SMEs. This paper studies China’s 2014 ECI subsidy policy and uses discontinuities in subsidy eligibility to identify the causal effect of subsidised ECI on firm export performance. Using a regression discontinuity design and firm-level data from 2011–2016, we find that ECI subsidies significantly increase firms’ export value, transactions, products, and destinations. The policy is particularly effective in supporting exports of machinery and transport equipment across markets of different economic sizes.

The trade elasticity from tariff-based regressions: what do we measure?
Nicolò Tamberi (Department for Business and Trade / CITP)

This paper shows that standard studies underestimate how much trade responds to tariff cuts in free trade agreements. The reason is simple: although agreements offer lower tariffs, many firms do not actually use them. As a result, traditional methods measure the effect of being eligible for a low tariff rather than the effect of the tariff firms really pay. Using European data and an approach similar to evaluating policies with partial take up, I find that the true trade elasticity is about three times larger than commonly estimated. This matters because accurate elasticities are crucial for predicting the impact of trade agreements.

Prices, Markups, and Exchange Rates
Natalie Chen (University of Warwick), Luciana Juvenal (Inter-American Development Bank), Alejandra Martinez (CITP, University of Nottingham)

When a currency depreciates, the prices set by firms on the final products they sell are impacted by two opposite forces. On the cost side, imported inputs become more expensive, pushing up production costs and squeezing profit margins when firms cannot fully pass these cost increases onto consumers. On the competition side, foreign goods become relatively more expensive, reducing import competition and giving domestic firms greater pricing power. Using detailed data for Colombian manufacturing firms during a large peso depreciation episode, we disentangle these effects and evaluate the exchange rate pass-through in firm-level prices: a 10% depreciation raises costs by 3% but prices by only 2%, resulting in lower markups. Overall, the depreciation generated an 8% increase in firm-level prices, contributing to a 1.94% increase in the domestic CPI.

Owning More of the Chain: Capital Subsidies and Firm-Level Upstream Shifts in China
Zijun Cheng (ESSEC Business School and CY Cergy Paris University)

This paper studies the causal impact of China’s capital goods import subsidy on firms’ production organization within global value chains. Using a model with endogenous stage choice, we show capital can complement or substitute labor. Empirically, combining matched firm-level customs and production data in a difference-in-differences and event study framework around the 2008 policy, we find firms expand their production stage span, driven by upstream imports. The results highlight how targeted equipment subsidies promote vertical upgrading and GVC repositioning.

The Role of Unreported Intermediate Inputs in Firms’ Production Structure
Sameer Malik (BI Norwegian Business School)

Manufacturing establishments produce many intermediate inputs in-house rather than sourcing them externally, yet this production goes unreported, obscuring the full extent of production linkages. I develop an algorithm to uncover these unobserved intermediate goods and apply it to confidential Indian plant-level data from 2001 to 2010. Exploiting tariff liberalization, I show that reductions in tariffs on internally produced intermediates induce establishments to shift toward external sourcing, increasing vertical specialization. This reallocation generates gains in productivity, sales, profits, and employment beyond those attributable to cheaper externally sourced inputs alone. Ignoring in-house production potentially biases estimates of the effects of trade policy.

The Bamboo That Bends: Vietnamese Processing Firms amidst the US-China Trade Wars
Minh Nhat Tran (Queen Mary University of London), Brigitte Granville (Queen Mary University of London), Luu Duc Toan Huynh (Queen Mary University of London)

When the US and China clashed over trade in 2018, firms in Vietnam were caught in the crossfire. Using near-universal firm-level data from 2016-2023, we track how Vietnamese processing firms responded depending on whether their processed goods go to China, the US, or neither. Firms tied to Chinese buyers expanded by drawing in new, labour-intensive entrants, with mostly Chinese and Taiwanese investors using Vietnam as an assembly base. Firms tied to US buyers shed workers but invested more heavily in technology and capital in more technical intensive industries and targeted by the US tariffs. This event reveals that the same shock create two opposite responding strategies, shaped entirely by where firms sit in global production networks.

Can plurilateral agreements facilitate global trade liberalization
Lasha Chochua (TSU ISET), James Lake (University of Tennessee), Gerald Willman (Uni Bielefeld, IfW Kiel)

We show that plurilateral agreements facilitate global tariff liberalization by creating an MFN-based margin of cooperation that leaves preferential access via preferential trade agreements (PTAs) unchanged. In a model of endogenous trade agreement formation with farsighted governments, PTAs become rigid once exclusion or free-riding incentives bind, constraining further preferential expansion. Plurilateral agreements relax these constraints by allowing countries to liberalize selectively in a differentiated-goods sector without altering existing PTAs. As a result, the stable equilibrium trade network consists of the PTAs that would arise absent plurilaterals, augmented–but not replaced–by plurilateral MFN liberalization. This mechanism provides an explanation for the growing role of sectoral plurilateral agreements within the WTO.

Trading Places: How Trade Policy Is Reshaping Multinational Firms’ Location
Alejandro Graziano (CITP, CEPR, University of Nottingham), Monika Sztajerowska (IMF and i-MIP), Christian Volpe Martincus (IDB and CESifo)

This paper provides new evidence on tariff-induced reorganization of multinational production. Exploiting the 2018–2019 U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, we show that Chinese MNEs expanded foreign affiliates disproportionately in third countries with high revealed production suitability, especially in tariff-exposed sectors. Trade agreements with the U.S. amplified this reallocation. We also document that firms anticipated these trade policy changes as tariff increases began to be proposed in 2016-2017. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest tariff-induced Chinese FDI in third countries accounts for 36–44% of Chinese cross-border investment projects.

Adaptation and engagement with contemporary sustainability challenges in the EU-Andean and EU Central America Free Trade Agreements
Maria Garcia (University of Bath)

Comprehensive trade agreements between Latin American states and the EU have been in place since the early 2010s. These were some of the first EU agreements to incorporate chapters for trade and sustainable development. This contribution leverages public documents relating to implementation committees and elite interviews to uncover the practical reality of interactions to trade and sustainability in the context of their trade agreement. The analysis pays special attention to themes discussed, to parties raising issues and the nature of the discussions, whether this includes coercive demands, or adversarial exchanges, uncovering hierarchies of thematic prioritization within relationships characterised by significant asymmetries.

The Impact of Digital Trade on Female Employment in the UK
Pinar Gunes (CITP, University of Sussex), Javier Lopez-Gonzalez (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Dongzhe Zhang (CITP, University of Sussex)

This paper builds a robust evidence base on the impact of digital trade on female employment in the UK, supporting strategic priorities related to growth and global competitiveness. The analysis leverages directly measured, firm-level indicators of digital trade and detailed labour market microdata to identify whether—and through which channels—digital trade reshapes gender inequality in the labour market. Specifically, the study estimates the causal effect of exposure to digital trade on women’s employment outcomes, occupational and sectoral allocation, and entrepreneurship-related outcomes. It further examines heterogeneity by age, education, and sectoral digital tradability to understand which groups are most likely to benefit.

The Task Content of Trade after Brexit: Evidence from UK Vacancy Data
Maria Garcia-Vega (University of Nottingham), Marit Hinnosaar (University of Nottingham), Richard Kneller (CITP, University of Nottingham), Glory Okutue (University of Nottingham)

This paper examines how post-Brexit non-tariff barriers altered the tasks involved in trade-related work. We use the UK–EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement as a policy shock that increased administrative and regulatory requirements while largely preserving tariff-free trade. Using UK vacancy data (2017–2022) and text analysis of job descriptions, we measure exposure using complementary indicators capturing regulatory, compliance, and tariff frictions, and show that trade-related vacancies declined overall, in proportion to the fall in vacancies following the TCA. However, in more exposed areas, the composition of trade jobs shifted, with compliance-intensive frictions, especially Rules of Origin, increasing demand.

Gender Norms and Inefficient Reallocation of Resources
Martina Uccioli (University of Nottingham)

This study explores whether gender norms hinder households from making economically optimal decisions during major job market shifts. Using data from a significant trade disruption that shifted job opportunities, the research tracks how employment shocks affect resource allocation within couples. By combining employment records with data on time use and gender attitudes, it tests whether deeply held beliefs about gender roles prevent households from reorganizing in ways that would maximize their income. The findings have broad implications for policy — particularly regarding how cultural norms shape responses to structural economic change and how culture can strengthen resilience.

Import Competition from China, Escape Competition, and the Shift toward Science-Based Innovation
Balázs Muraközy (University of Liverpool and KRTK), Sofia Amaral-Garcia (European Commission, Université libre de Bruxelles), Péter Bauer (European Commission), Clemens Domnick (European Commission), Péter Harasztosi (European Investment Bank), Christoph Weiss (European Investment Bank)

This paper studies how rising competition from Chinese imports affects innovation by European manufacturing firms. Using firm-level survey data across countries, we show that stronger import competition increases the share of firms introducing new products and processes. At the same time, it shifts innovation toward more science-based activities, such as research and development and collaboration with scientific institutions. These findings suggest that competitive pressure does not only influence whether firms innovate, but also how they innovate, encouraging strategies that support differentiation and technological upgrading in the face of global competition.

Network architecture and adaptive capacity in global automotive supply chains
Jun Du (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School), Oleksandr Shepotylo (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School), Sham-Una Yakubu (Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School)

This paper examines how global supply chain network architecture shapes firms' capacity to adapt to major technological transitions. Analysing panel data from 94 automotive OEMs across six countries (2012–2024), we identify an efficiency-adaptability paradox: global network centrality raises return on assets by 7 percentage points yet reduces EV production adoption by 24 percentage points. Geographic diversification further constrains adaptation, reducing EV supplier adoption by 35%. Local supply chain completeness moderates these effects, increasing new EV supplier adoption by 10.6 per year. No OEM achieves majority EV production without majority East Asian sourcing.

IP Enforcement Costs, International Trade and Innovation
Richard Kneller (CITP, University of Nottingham), Ioannis Papadakis (UK Competition and Market Authority), Lanlan Wu (University of Nottingham)

A central pillar of intellectual property rights systems are the courts that allow these rights to be enforces. These institutions are accessible to both domestic and foreign owned firms and cover imports. We study the effects on international trade of a reduction in these IP enforcement costs that occurred in the UK after 2013. Studying the UK allows us to isolate the effects of IP enforcement from the rights themselves, as developed countries typically have well-established and stable IP rights. Our analysis using product-level imports suggests that lower enforcement costs increased UK imports. These effects occurred primarily due to the trade response of existing IP owners, which we show using micro-data linking Chinese exporters with patent data. Lower enforcement costs also increased the returns to innovation, although this primarily effected UK exports.

Global Consequences of Second Round of Tariffs: A General Equilibrium Approach
Archana Srivastava (BITS Pilani, Hyderabad Campus), Somesh Kumar Mathur (Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur (IITK)

This study uses the GTAP 11c database within an applied general equilibrium model to assess global economic impacts of the second wave of U.S. tariffs announced July 7 and 9, 2025. It considers three scenarios: universal U.S. tariffs, reciprocal retaliation, and exemptions for India, Vietnam, and the UK. Results show short-term welfare gains for the U.S. and Western Europe and MENA regions via revenue and trade diversion, while the heavily targeted countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada incur significant GDP and welfare losses. Exempt countries gain from enhanced supply chain integration and productivity gains under deep bilateral trade alignment. Although global GDP declines in all scenarios, the contraction remains below 1%. The findings attract attention towards WTO led multilateral system as this reveal growing shift for selective bilateralism at the expense of multilateral trade norms.

Restructuring the Global Economy in Response to Aggressive U.S. Trade Policy
Karen Thierfelder-Robinson (International Food Policy Research Institute), Sherman Robinson (IFPRI and Peterson Institute for International Economics)

The US is pursuing an “America First” trade policy that repudiates the post-war rules-based trading system, is protectionist and chaotic, and seeks to achieve foreign policy goals unrelated to trade. This paper discusses how other countries could react, working within the current system. Using a model of global trade, we simulate scenarios of global adjustment, including potential collapse of the US-Mexico-Canada regional trade agreement, deeper integration among other countries, and trade diversion away from the US. We find that in the short run the US gains from exploiting its market power but loses in the long run, while others gain.

The Political Economy of Imperial Trade Policies
Roberto Bonfatti (University of Padua), Giovanni Facchini (CITP, University of Nottingham), Peri Silva (Kansas State University), Ling Zhou (Shanghai University of Economics and Finance)

During the 19th century, colonial empires expanded substantially, with at their heart flourishing trade relationships between the metropole and colonies. This paper introduces the first comprehensive dataset documenting the trade policies of the major colonial empires from 1815to 1960. We develop a theoretical framework that identifies three central determinants of these policies: inter–imperial competition, the progressive extension of the franchise in the metropole and variation in imperial institutional structure. We then evaluate the model’s predictions using the newly assembled dataset, and find robust empirical support for its key implications.

Sustainability Linkages and the Heterogeneous Trade Effects of Technical NTMs: Evidence from the Global Palm Oil Trade
Jurgen Peci (University of Reading)

This study examines how technical non-tariff measures (NTMs) shape trade flows in the global palm oil market, distinguishing between measures classified as linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and those without such linkage. Combining UNCTAD–TRAINS data with the UNESCAP (2019) Global Concordance Matrix, the analysis constructs novel HS-6 product-level indicators capturing regulatory intensity, SDG linkage, and SDG-Goal depth. Estimates from a structural gravity model using PPML with high-dimensional fixed effects show that technical measures are trade-reducing on average. This negative effect is driven by non-SDG-linked regulations, while greater SDG breadth moderates the marginal trade-restrictive impact of regulatory intensity.

The Impact of GSP Graduations on Indian exporters
Ingo Borchert (CITP / UKTPO, University of Sussex Business School), Mattia Di Ubaldo (CITP / UKTPO, University of Sussex Business School)

We study how Indian exporters respond to a sudden and unexpected increase in tariffs they face in the EU market. Some firms stop exporting whereas continuing exporters adjust by making cheaper versions of their products using cheaper inputs. Firms also reallocate activity internally as the overall number of products made contracts, and resources are shifted towards making products not affected by the tariff increase. We also observe significant changes to the workforce with directly employed workers being laid off by firms that stop exporting whilst larger firms use more agency workers. Managers keep their jobs but take a wage cut.

Exploring multilateral and continental pathways towards the inclusion of women in International Trade for sustainable development
Erebi Ndoni (University of Bradford)

This paper seeks to determine whether the objective of the inclusion of women in international trade to achieve gender equality and economic empowerment would be more effective under a multilateral agenda in the WTO or through the continental auspices of the AfCFTA. This is with consideration of the multiple challenges faced by the multilateral organisation and the novelty of the AfCFTA.

Double Standards of Compensation
Lauge Poulsen (University College London)

Provided governments protect property of nationals in conformity with an established international standard, foreigners are entitled to neither more nor less. That has been the public position by Western governments since at least the 19th century. Internal government records from the Cold War, however, show that one of the main architects of the international law on property protection, the United Kingdom, knowingly pursued double standards of compensation. While demanding developing countries follow the international standard on compensation for expropriation, shifting British governments were unwilling to adhere to the same standard in the UK.

Korea's Biosafety Governance Between Regulatory Pressure from the US and Regulatory Diplomacy of the EU: Focusing on Gene-Editing Technologies
Jiyeong Go (CITP, University of Sussex)

The regulation of biotechnologies in international trade remains contentious, particularly as genome editing blurs established GMO regulatory categories. This paper examines how Korea balances US pressure to streamline approval processes with its commitments to the Cartagena Protocol. Drawing on five semi-structured stakeholder interviews across public, private, business, and civil society sectors, the paper finds that Korea's regulatory approach is shaped more by its multilateral commitments under the WTO and the Cartagena Protocol, through which EU regulatory diplomacy has been most pronounced, than by bilateral trade pressures alone. These dynamics illustrate how multilateral frameworks can counterbalance bilateral power asymmetries in biotechnology governance.

Servitization and Export Specialization: Evidence from the United Kingdom
Valeria Terrones Rodriguez (CITP, University of Sussex)

This paper studies UK firms that simultaneously export goods and services — a process called servitization. Using firm-level data from 2011 to 2022, we find that bundled exports are 37% higher than only-goods exports within the same product, destination, and year, and more than double under firm-product-year and product-destination-year fixed effects, confirming strong goods-services complementarity. Servitization extends well beyond manufacturing into wholesale, retail, professional, and technology sectors. Export concentration reflects heterogeneity among firms within industries rather than structural differences across sectors, with a small number of highly specialised firms dominating bundled exports and targeting high-income markets.

The Restrictiveness of Rules of Origin: Evidence from UK Trade Agreements
Adriana Brenis Castro (University of Sussex Business School), Michael Gasiorek (University of Sussex Business School), Manuel Tong Koecklin (University of Sussex Business School)

Free trade agreements (FTAs) offer preferential tariffs, but their effectiveness depends on firms using these preferences, which requires compliance with rules of origin (ROOs). These rules can raise costs or complexity, leading firms to forgo preferences and pay MFN tariffs instead. Previous research relied on synthetic indices that may conflate ROO restrictiveness with product characteristics. This study improves on that by comparing identical products across different FTAs using a triple-difference approach. Focusing on UK agreements, it finds that seemingly flexible ROOs can be more restrictive in practice. The results highlight limitations of index measures and show how ROO design significantly affects FTA effectiveness.

In Hot Water: Clarifying the Price Effects of Brexit
Meredith A. Crowley (CEPR, University of Cambridge), Joris Hoste (CITP, University of Cambridge)

Non-trade-policy barriers play a key role in shaping trade patterns and underpin deep trade agreements, yet remain difficult to measure. We study how these barriers between the EU and the UK evolved after the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Focusing on bottled water, where formal trade policy was unchanged, we find UK consumer prices for imports rose by 17% relative to continental Europe. Freight rates on UK-bound road routes increased by 30%, linking the price rise to the TCA. Using a partial equilibrium model, we estimate higher transport costs explain 30% of the increase, highlighting how trade relations can fragment markets even without policy changes.

Gains from Trade with Heterogeneous Households
Gizem Kutlu (University of Bristol)

I investigate the distributional consequences of international trade within countries by considering different dimensions of heterogeneity across households—wealth, income, and education. I develop a model to measure welfare gains that accrue over time and vary across households depending on the effect of reduced trade costs on their expenditures, wages, and consumption/saving choices. I use this model to analyze the distributional implications of the North American Free Trade Agreement for the United States and Mexico. I find that the elimination of import tariffs relatively favors the poor within each education level. I also show that although college graduates experience larger gains than non-college workers at the same wealth level, poor non-college workers gain more than rich college graduates.

The Food Problem in an Open Economy
Guido Lamarmora (University of Nottingham)

This paper investigates how trade openness reshapes our understanding of the Food Problem—the persistent specialisation of low-income countries (LICs) in low labour-productivity agriculture. It is often linked to low agricultural TFP and demand patterns, leading to recommendations to boost technology or trade openness to reduce agriculture’s labour intensity. Using a quantitative trade model and trade data, I infer sectoral productivities and estimate demand elasticities, finding that LICs exhibit relatively high TFPs in agriculture once land constraints are considered. Results indicate that trade openness and higher agricultural TFP can reinforce LICs’ agricultural specialisation, highlighting industry’s role in labour reallocation.

A Scientific Framework for Interdisciplinary Trade Policy Review Using Machine Learning
Sahana Suraj (UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex)

In the life cycle of any policy introduced by the government, reviewing scope, objectives, and tools of implementation over time is essential because policies evolve and contexts change. Unlike policy impact assessment, which evaluates discrete effects, policy review examines ongoing performance. Reviewing trade policy is particularly challenging because it is inherently interdisciplinary, intersecting economics, law, political science, development studies, and international relations. As a result, to review trade policy, methods need to be capable of synthesising heterogeneous qualitative and quantitative evidence while identifying systemic alignment across policy domains. This paper contributes to border policy analysis literature by conceptualising policy review as a distinct methodological domain and demonstrating how computational tools and mixed methods can operationalise systematic review that is interdisciplinary, replicable and scientifically grounded.