By Emily Merry, Alexander Fitzpatrick and Ludivine Petetin
This discussion note builds on the 2026 Wales Regional Policy Forum, funded by the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP). Held under Chatham House Rule on 14 January 2025, the event involved a series of research and practitioner-led presentations from academics, civil servants, and civil society group representatives.
The aim of this forum was to bring together this diverse range of actors to openly discuss and debate the role of Wales in post-Brexit trade and trade’s impact on Wales as a nation.
Co-hosted by Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and CITP, the 2026 Wales Regional Policy Forum explored the challenges and opportunities shaping Welsh trade in a rapidly evolving global environment. The focus of the presentations and discussions covered a range of topics related to trade, including agri-foods, devolved business development and export capacity, data sharing, the development of UK trade policy, and the broader roles and functions of devolved nations in UK trade policymaking.
Panel One discussed the practical challenges facing Welsh exporters, particularly SMEs and smaller organisations that often lack the human and financial capacities to navigate complex and evolving trade requirements. Participants noted that devolved and smaller organisations (be they firms, NGOs or otherwise) are rarely prioritised in UK-level trade negotiations, despite their importance to Wales’ exporting profile. This characterisation of Wales as an economy dominated by ‘smaller or micro businesses’ further underscored the challenges faced by Welsh firms looking to trade internationally.
Panel Two explored how UK-Wales trade aligns with UK-EU trade, focusing largely on the agri-food sector. The participants discussed the grey or ‘fuzzy’ ownership of trade policy; how it is reserved to Westminster, but its impacts fall directly on devolved nations. The panel concluded that the post-Brexit policy environment has forced devolved administrations to navigate a landscape where they must implement trade mandates that intersect deeply with their own legislative competences, despite having limited formal input in the primary policy-making process.
Participants reflected on the shifting environment for Welsh exporters following the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU). As Wales’s largest trading partner, Welsh exporters now face increased barriers to trade. They noted that these challenges are particularly acute for the agricultural, food production, and manufacturing sectors in which compliance with EU standards is essential for continued market access and exports. A divergence in standards, such as pesticides, preservatives, and animal welfare, has further complicated access to EU markets for Welsh exporters. These pressures are especially challenging for SMEs and smaller organisations, which often lack the resources to navigate increased administration and compliance burdens. The demographic characterisation of Wales as a nation of ‘smaller or micro businesses’ further stresses the challenges faced by Welsh organisations and firms.
Non-regression clauses within UK-EU trade agreements were discussed, protecting involved parties from reducing standards to gain competitive advantages. In a post-Brexit environment, participants noted that Welsh agriculture depends on maintaining high standards, meaning that Welsh farmers would be unable to compete with lower-cost and lower-regulation standards from other countries. Maintaining alignment with EU SPS standards is essential for continued access to the EU market for Welsh goods.
Furthermore, participants noted the wider global context, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical instability, tariffs, and economic volatility, all of which have made international trade more unpredictable for Welsh businesses. These global pressures compound the regulatory challenges created by Brexit, affecting production timelines and export reliability.
Despite these pressures, participants highlighted examples of Welsh businesses successfully adapting. These cases demonstrate the potential for market diversification and building new international partnerships.
The forum further discussed the ambiguity of trade policy ownership, noting that trade is a reserved matter, but that existing trade policy incorporates clauses which have a direct impact on devolved nations. It was highlighted that the early inclusion of devolved nations in trade negotiations is crucial for devolved voices to be heard throughout the lifecycle of UK trade policy from its negotiation to implementation. There was also a discussion on the potential impact of the next Senedd Election (due to be held in May 2026) and how this event could shape future UK trade agreements and how they affect Wales.
A central theme of the forum was the governance of trade policy and the implications for the devolved nations. Participants described the current governance landscape as characterised by ‘fuzzy ownership’, with unclear boundaries between UK-level authority and devolved responsibilities. This has resulted in policy incoherence between the UK Trade Strategy and devolved priorities, fragmented approaches to trade implementation, and uncertainty for Welsh businesses and exporters.
Many of the UK’s current trade agreements are roll-overs from EU trade agreements. However, new agreements negotiated by the UK Government, including those with New Zealand and Australia, have raised concerns about the concessions affecting agricultural producers in Wales and other devolved nations that are large producers in these sectors. Participants stressed that trade agreements signed at the UK level often lack mechanisms for integrating devolved perspectives.
There was broad agreement that early and meaningful involvement of devolved nations and non-governmental actors is essential to ensure that future UK trade agreements reflect devolved economic needs. The importance of impact assessments that make use of disaggregated data was also identified as one way that could help ensure that UK trade agreements reflect devolved economic priorities. Participants emphasised the need for a structured method of intergovernmental collaboration, clear processes for devolved input into negotiating mandates, and recognition of devolved economic priorities within UK trade strategy. As the UK continues to negotiate and implement trade agreements as an ‘independent trading nation,’ such an approach to structured devolved engagement is increasingly salient.
Further to the need to employ disaggregated data in the planning of trade agreements and ex ante impact assessments/estimates, participants noted that there is a lack of Welsh-specific trade data. This data gap represents a major barrier for devolved nations to undertake sector-specific impact assessments of newly signed or implemented trade agreements, especially how these UK-wide trade agreements and policies may impact the local devolved economy in unique or specific ways. Participants also supported the creation of a publicly available record of UK-EU regulatory divergence to help organisations anticipate the implications of policy changes.
A structured method of collaboration between the UK and the devolved nations will be necessary to ensure consistent and coherent engagement on trade policy. This will ensure that new or upcoming trade agreements evenly distribute costs and benefits across the UK, while also facilitating feedback loops on the impacts of trade agreements already underway and implemented.
To support Welsh businesses and the Welsh economy, it will be necessary to develop robust Welsh-specific trade data alongside impact assessments to mitigate potential implications resulting from UK trade deals. Intergovernmental and interinstitutional data sharing agreements would facilitate the sharing of already existing datasets, while also permitting the co-design of new data collection efforts in a ‘joined-up-government’ approach.
Targeted assistance for SMEs navigating international markets could greatly improve the experience of international trade, especially for ‘first-time’ traders. In particular, programmes or support on meeting EU compliance standards, as well as managing trade during periods or global or supply chain volatility, would provide SMEs with a toolkit to trade more effectively.
Ensuring that UK trade agreements uphold high agricultural, environmental, and food standards to safeguard Welsh producers and maintain market access.
As a result of devolution acts, some matters remain reserved to the UK Government, while others are devolved competencies to the devolved nations. However, it is important to recognise that some policy areas have grey/fuzzy ownership, which will need to be considered when implementing trade policies across the UK. That is not to say that there is a need for constitutional change, but rather, within areas characterised as having ‘fuzzy’ ownership, increased communication and clarity among central and devolved UK actors is needed.
The forum provided a platform for Welsh trade discussions across civil society groups, governments and academics. Participants highlighted the significant challenges facing Welsh exporters in the post-Brexit environment, particularly SMEs seeking to maintain access to the EU and international markets. Overall, the participants identified that while there are some positive aspects of Welsh trade, more progress is crucial in supporting Welsh businesses to strengthen access to EU and international trade markets. Fostering consistent collaboration between the UK Government and devolved nations on future trade deals will be imperative to ensure that trade agreements support the needs of Wales and its economy.
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